September 25, 2026
Nigeria’s Reform Gains Face A Harder Global Resilience Test
The IMF says reforms have improved Nigeria’s macroeconomic position, but a global rise in fuel, food and fertiliser prices could boost exports and public revenue while deepening inflation and food insecurity.
In its June 2026 Article IV review, the IMF said reforms over the previous three years had improved macroeconomic outcomes and built resilience. It estimated growth at 4% in 2025 and projected 4.1% for 2026, while noting that higher food and transport costs remain a drag on activity.
The external shock is two sided. Higher global prices can lift export earnings and fiscal receipts for an oil exporter, but they can also raise the cost of fuel, food and farm inputs. The IMF warned that those pressures could aggravate poverty and food insecurity.
That balance is why stronger headline growth alone cannot establish whether reform gains are reaching households. Revenue increases must be weighed against the cost of living, the delivery of public services and the way government resources are used. The same question applies to domestic policy: fuel reform will be judged by its effect on prices, supply and household budgets.
What KOKO is watching next: inflation, food and transport costs, export and fiscal receipts, budget execution and whether measures intended to cushion households are delivered as global prices change.