Nigeria’s Petrol Discount Could Cost N1.77trn

Nigeria’s petrol price relief package may cost the Federal Government up to N1.77trn, according to BMI, a Fitch Solutions company. The projection highlights potential risks to government revenue, foreign exchange stability, and investor confidence if the measures are extended beyond their planned timeline.

BMI estimated that the package could cost between 0.2 and 0.4 per cent of GDP, assuming the measures are withdrawn in late first quarter or early second quarter of 2027. This projection is based on Nigeria’s 2025 nominal GDP of approximately N441.5trn.

The research firm warned that prolonged implementation of the petrol discount could worsen Nigeria’s fiscal position. The cost range translates to between N883bn and N1.77trn, depending on the withdrawal timeline.