September 25, 2026
Diesel Margins Surge, But Forcados And Bonga Price Gains Remain Unproven
The Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp diesel crack reached $98 a barrel on September 1 before easing, but that European refining margin does not show what buyers paid for Forcados or Bonga crude.
Platts assessments published by S&P Global Energy put the physical ARA diesel crack at $98 a barrel on September 1 and $95.30 on September 2. The August average was $80.50, compared with $71.71 in July and $44.75 in June. A crack spread tracks the value difference between a refined product and crude; it is not a refinery’s net profit or a Nigerian crude price.
NUPRC’s August production breakdown recorded average daily volumes of 317.40 thousand barrels at the Forcados terminal and 92.50 thousand barrels at Bonga. Those figures describe output, not a grade specific premium, cargo sale or increase in buyer demand.
Stronger diesel economics can influence refinery purchasing, but the effect on any crude grade depends on the refinery’s equipment, feedstock options, crude quality, freight and contract timing. A higher European diesel crack therefore cannot, on its own, establish that Nigerian sellers are receiving more for these barrels.
The evidence to watch is the price differential for each grade and confirmed cargo activity. That distinction also matters for Nigeria’s longer term oil investment pipeline: project investment estimates are not the same as awarded work or realised sales.
What KOKO is watching next: published grade differentials, cargo schedules and refinery buying data that can connect global product margins to actual Nigerian crude prices.